UZR, which stands for Ultimate Zone Rating, is a statistic used in baseball to measure a player’s defensive ability. It is used to assign a numerical value to a player’s defensive performance based on how many runs they are estimated to have saved or given up compared to the average player at their position, but it does have some stark differences from Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).

UZR is calculated using a combination of play-by-play data, pitch tracking data, and other information to estimate the number of runs that a player has saved or given up due to their defensive abilities…or lack thereof. The statistic considers several factors such as range, arm strength, and positioning. It also takes into account the specific context of each play, such as the type of pitch thrown, the count, and if the hitter is batting lefty or righty.

One important aspect of UZR calculation is assigning run value to plays. A UZR calculation assigns a run value to each ball put in play based on where it is hit, whether it is a line drive or a fly ball and whether it is hit with a man on base. These values are used to estimate the number of runs that the player saved or gave up relative to an average player at their position, which is the main difference between DRS and UZR.

UZR also uses a multi-year regression analysis on the player. It analyzes a large sample of plays over multiple seasons to determine the defensive performance of the player relative to others at their position. It also adjusts for park effects and league averages in order to produce a more accurate measurement.

It is important to note that UZR is an estimating statistic, it’s not meant to provide a precise measurement of a player’s defensive abilities, and like all statistics, it has its limitations. It is also important to use UZR in conjunction with other defensive metrics, like DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) and Good Fielding Plays/Misplays (GFP/GPM) to get a more comprehensive picture of a player’s defensive abilities.

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Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is a statistic used in baseball to evaluate the overall value of a player, both offensively and defensively, compared to a “replacement level” player. The statistic aims to sum up a player’s contributions to their team’s overall performance in one number, making it a useful tool for comparing players across different positions and teams.

WAR is calculated by combining several different statistics, including offensive and defensive metrics, base running, and positional adjustments. The statistic is based on the concept of replacement level, which is the level of performance that an average player from the minor leagues or bench could reasonably be expected to provide. A player with a higher WAR is considered more valuable to their team than a player with a lower WAR – the higher the WAR, the harder to “replace”.

Offensively, WAR uses traditional statistics such as batting average, home runs, and runs batted in, but also includes more advanced metrics like on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). These statistics are used to calculate a player’s runs created, which represents how many runs a player generates for their team.

Defensively, WAR uses statistics such as Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) to measure a player’s defensive abilities. A positional adjustment is also made to account for the relative difficulty of playing different positions. For example, playing shortstop is generally considered more difficult than playing first base, so a shortstop will receive a higher defensive value than a first baseman.

A “base running” component is also included, which measures a player’s ability to take an extra base, steal a base, or avoid being tagged out on a ball in play

Once the offensive, defensive, and base running components have been calculated, they are combined and compared to a “replacement level” player to determine the player’s overall value in terms of wins above replacement. This number is presented in terms of wins and can be positive or negative.

It’s important to note that different analytics websites and organizations may use slightly different formulas and weighting of statistics to calculate WAR, so the exact calculation may vary but you typically find them to be within a slim margin. Additionally, WAR is a statistic that relies on a number of assumptions and estimates, and it should be considered in conjunction with other statistics and scouting reports to get a complete picture of a player’s performance and value to their team.

In conclusion, Wins Above Replacement is a statistic that aims to provide a comprehensive measure of a player’s overall value to their team, both offensively and defensively. WAR takes into account a wide range of statistics, including traditional and advanced metrics, a positional adjustment, and base running abilities, making it a valuable tool for evaluating and comparing players across different positions and teams.

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Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is a statistic that measures the number of runs a player saves or gives up through their defensive play. DRS is designed to evaluate the overall defensive abilities of a player and can be used to compare players across different positions on the field – but ideally, it is used to compare players at the same position.

The statistic was first introduced in the early 2000’s by baseball statistician John Dewan and has since become a popular tool for evaluating defensive performance. DRS takes into account a wide range of defensive metrics, including range, arm strength, and fielding percentage, and combines them into a single number. This allows for a more complete and accurate assessment of a player’s defensive abilities.

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is calculated by analyzing video footage of each play and assigning a “runs saved” or “runs given up” value to each one. This value is based on the number of runs that a player is deemed to have saved or given up through their defensive actions on a particular play. The calculation takes into account a wide range of factors such as range, arm strength, and fielding percentage.

To calculate DRS, each individual play on the field is evaluated based on the likelihood of it being converted into an out or a hit by the average player at that position. Then, the runs that a player saved or gave up relative to the league average, is computed. These values are accumulated for the entire season, giving the player a final DRS total.

The statistic is calculated by third-party providers, such as the baseball statistics website Fangraphs, using a combination of video and computer analysis. They use a combination of tracking data, data from cameras, and a team of analysts that watch each play and grade it. The statistic is not an official statistic tracked by Major League Baseball, specifically.

It’s important to keep in mind that DRS is a subjective statistic as it relies on the judgment of analysts grading the play and it might not capture all the nuances of defense, such as positioning or shifts. However, when used in conjunction with other statistics and scouting reports, DRS can provide a useful perspective on a player’s defensive abilities and how they compare to other players at the same position.

The statistic is popular among analysts and scouts who use it to identify the best defensive players in the league, and it’s also used in contract negotiations, awards, and all-star teams, coaches and managers might use it to make line-ups or in-game decisions. Now, it’s not without criticism, as one might argue that the stat is based on subjectivity and video judgment calls…and it doesn’t take into account shifts or the fielder’s positioning.

Overall, Defensive Runs Saved is a valuable tool for evaluating the defensive abilities of players at their respective position, but it should be used in conjunction with other metrics and scouting reports in order to get a more complete picture of a player’s abilities.

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WILL THE ATLANTA BRAVES WIN THE EAST?

The Braves are much better, with a bright future that stretches into 2028, the Mets have signed key free agent veterans, the Phillies have bulked up, and the Marlins will clearly have one of the better bullpens. The only team not in this race….The Washington Nationals.

STARTING PITCHING: Dub’s and K’s for Days

Braves – The Braves Have a strong starting 4, with the 5th starting pitcher more than likely to be decided in Spring Training. The Final 5th spot will be secured by Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson or Bryce Elder. Mike Sokora has the upper hand if he is healthy according to Jake Matroianni of the Locked on Braves podcast.

The New York Mets are the crowned Kings of the East. The Braves will have something to say about that. I am sure with this pitching staff the Braves will be in the mix as they were last season. Max Fried Headlines a great starting pitching staff. If you notice the Top 4 are all slateted to record a 2.4 wAR or higher. The most striking numbers are the low walk rates to go with very solid K’s per 9.

To compete with the aging Mets rotation I think Spender Strider simply needs to replicate what he did last year. Another point of emphasis will be if Kyle Wright and Max Fried. If they could get thier K/9 into the 9.5 to 11.0. This Range that would more than likely be a recipe for success. Mike Soroka back in 2019 he threw 174.2 IP. If he can remain healthy and at least reach 130-140 the Braves might be looking at the BEST starting 5. The Braves have age on thier side, but health is a concern or the 5th starter.

The Hitters: Hot-lanta Crush

The Braves offense if very good, powerful, and they have speed. The new rules will surely send the Braves running from base to base. Clearly making them a threat even when a single squeeks through the infield. In 2023, the Braves ranked 1st in Home Runs (243) and 2nd in wOBA .330. Other key metrics had them 4th in Wrc+ 111, 4th in Stolen Bases 87, 5th in OBP .317.

They will miss Dansby Swanson at the plate in 2023. Hehit 25 HR and 96 RBI in 2022, as well produced a 6.4 WAR. The Braves did add Sean Murphy, who should add both a strong bat and defender. Also they will have the first full season with Ronald Acuna Jr. in the last couple seasons. Austin Riley is a power bat that can hit the long ball with the second highest WAR offensively. The others like Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, and Vaughn Grissom will be a tough lineup to handle.

The Bullpen

The Braves Bullpen in 2022 was very good. They ranked 2nd overall and for the last two seasons, either ahead or behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. They had the 3rd highest K/Per9 10.17. Ranked 1st in saves, they were also ranked in the Top 10 for 7th lowest BABIP .276. The Braves had the 2nd highest WAR (tied with Houston) 7.6,. To top it off they had an 8% HR/FB which was good enough for 4th lowest.

Kenley Jansen had a resurgnet year on the mound. He has appearded to re-discovered the edge he once had as a Los Angeles Dodger. He recorded 41 saves in 2023, a total he last achieved in 2017. They had 8 relief pitchers log at least a 10.25 K/9 or higher in 2022. Thier Top 5 strikeout leaders recorded between 59-94 K’s on the season. They brought most everyone back and just like their starters the relief pitchers appear to be a strength as well.

Braves, My Way Too Early Pick to Win the National League

When you put everything together, Brian Snitker the skipper of this N.L. East beast is poised to come out on top despite thier division rivals beefing up thier pitching and offense. The Braves are my pick to win the N.L. East and make it back to thier 2nd World Series in 3 seasons. What the Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has done with locking up this team is enxt level genius. The Braves know these men will be there to battle the next 5 years. They have masterfully put together one of the smartest lineups in all of baseball. Althought he National League is a guanltant. I think they are one of the Top 3 teams to make it to the Fall Classic in 2023.

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